firstnamedotlastname

Can a company predict turnover with an algorithm?

The WSJ reported an interesting story yesterday.  Google is apparently concerned about employee turnover so they’ve developed an algorithm to calculate the likelihood that a given employee will depart.

I assume stuff like:

- age

- gender

- education

- option vest schedule

- current position

- salary history

- life changes

- commute time

Some might say that developing an algorithm for turnover is sort of like the argument about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.  Or maybe, like re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

I think Google is a fantastic company.  Having been in multiple meetings across many different groups and departments there, I found the company is filled with really smart people that by and large are mostly interested in doing cool stuff and enabling partners like us to benefit.  And they generate nearly $2B a month in revenue!

But.. like any company, its real asset is people, and people are human.  Some are political, some are ladder-climbers, some are real go-getters, some like to coast, some only get jazzed by a thorny challenge, you get the point.  An algorithm is nifty, but I think most experienced managers that have been around awhile can predict an employee departure or likelihood of departure on gut feel as well as or better than any algorithm.  Isn’t that a managers primary job?  To hire, motivate, and retain the best employees?  Creating an algorithm like this, says to me that Google might have deeper systemic issues.

Sales is perhaps the most important thing you can screw up

Salespeople are typically one of the best ways to find where the real opportunity sits.  The question: who buys it and why? is timeless in not only its simplicity, but also in its ability to cut to the chase on where value really sits, why, and what alternatives are in play.

I’ve learned over time is that hiring really good salespeople and then focusing their motivation (compensation, success, results, etc.) in a straightforward and meaningful way will ultimately uncover the really interesting and critical information about your business and the real value vector of your offerings.  The trick is you have to hire smart and hungry salespeople and be really clear about the motivation piece.  Screwing up either prerequisite up will render horrible results.

A few years ago, I had a fantastic sales guy that worked for me.  He was a bit of a prima-donna and demanded more from me (by far) than anyone else on my team.  He wasn’t afraid to call me anywhere or anytime, and call me out if he thought it was appropriate, even if it wasn’t.  He wasn’t afraid to ask really hard questions of anyone, anywhere regardless of title, rank or position.  He was incredibly passionate about succeeding both personally and professionally.  He also possessed a strong dose of equal parts skepticism and optimism.  At times I couldn’t stand his brash attitude or bluntness.  He demanded a lot of attention (and money).  Eventually he left for greener pastures and the loss to my team and the business in general was huge, way more so that I had expected.  I’m not saying his leaving was preventable or for the wrong reasons.  People move on and things don’t work out.  It was the after-effects that left a lasting impression on me.

I learned something important.

Great sales people don’t always do or act exactly the way you want or hope they would.  At the end of the day, results are the real and true measure of their value to the business.  Strong performers in this world demand a lot from the company and the company’s leadership.  They want and need leadership that listens, acts, motivates, and doesn’t mince words.

Hunterberg ‘09 – cyclocross around Boulder

Greg already did a bang up job of recounting most of the ride at Mud and Cowbells.  I like the video below ‘cause its probably the only time you’ll see me crest a hill in front of he and pete webber..!  No matter that he rode the Koppenberg climb (17% grade) one handed and filming the whole time.

 

My friend Hunter leads a couple of these CX treks around the dirt roads and trails throughout Boulder County a couple times each year.  Rides are 3.5 – 4.5 hours and always finish with beer and brats.  A great way to get in great base miles with a fantastic group of folks.